Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa
Model pick: Lusitânia Lourosa (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.59 – 1.61
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 58%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Amarante | Lusitânia Lourosa |
|---|
| League position | #12 (0 pts) | #2 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.67 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Amarante shown at home, Lusitânia Lourosa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Amarante — last 5
LLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Lusitânia Lourosa — last 5
DDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Amarante (home) | Lusitânia Lourosa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 67% |
| Top scorer | – | Leonardo Vonic (4) |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.59 vs 1.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Amarante or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Lusitânia Lourosa or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 40% / 60% |
| Amarante clean sheet | 20% |
| Lusitânia Lourosa clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Lusitânia Lourosa is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Lusitânia Lourosa edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (58% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa — FAQ
Who will win Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our statistical model makes Lusitânia Lourosa the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Amarante 37%, draw 25%, Lusitânia Lourosa 38%.
Will both teams score in Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Expected goals are 1.59 for Amarante and 1.61 for Lusitânia Lourosa — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Amarante vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Amarante or draw is 61%.