Amazonas vs Ypiranga FC Prediction & Preview
Serie C (Brazil) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C (BRAZIL)
Amazonas vs Ypiranga FC
Model pick: Ypiranga FC (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.65 – 0.88
Total goals: 1.5
Over 2.5: 32%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Amazonas | Ypiranga FC |
|---|
| League position | #12 (25 pts) | #6 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 25% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.6 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*Amazonas shown at home, Ypiranga FC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Amazonas — last 5
LWWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Ypiranga FC — last 5
LWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Amazonas (home) | Ypiranga FC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-3 in 9 (1.1 / 0.8 goals per game) | 2-1-5 in 8 (1.1 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 100% |
Serie C (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Serie C (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.65 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (22%) |
| Double chance — Amazonas or draw (1X) | 61% |
| Double chance — Ypiranga FC or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 64% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 7% / 93% |
| Amazonas clean sheet | 41% |
| Ypiranga FC clean sheet | 52% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ypiranga FC is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Ypiranga FC edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (68% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Amazonas vs Ypiranga FC — FAQ
Who will win Amazonas vs Ypiranga FC?
Our statistical model makes Ypiranga FC the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Amazonas 27%, draw 36%, Ypiranga FC 38%.
Will both teams score in Amazonas vs Ypiranga FC?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Amazonas vs Ypiranga FC?
Expected goals are 0.65 for Amazonas and 0.88 for Ypiranga FC — about 1.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Amazonas vs Ypiranga FC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (22%). Double chance for Amazonas or draw is 61%.