Ammerthal vs Aschaffenburg Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Ammerthal vs Aschaffenburg
Model pick: Aschaffenburg (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.71 – 1.53
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ammerthal | Aschaffenburg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.4 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Ammerthal shown at home, Aschaffenburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ammerthal — last 5
WLDLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 80% of home games go over 2.5.
Aschaffenburg — last 5
WLDLW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ammerthal (home) | Aschaffenburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 100% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.58
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 66%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.71 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (16%) |
| Double chance — Ammerthal or draw (1X) | 43% |
| Double chance — Aschaffenburg or draw (X2) | 83% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Ammerthal clean sheet | 22% |
| Aschaffenburg clean sheet | 49% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Aschaffenburg is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Despite playing away, Aschaffenburg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ammerthal vs Aschaffenburg — FAQ
Who will win Ammerthal vs Aschaffenburg?
Our statistical model makes Aschaffenburg the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Ammerthal 19%, draw 27%, Aschaffenburg 53%.
Will both teams score in Ammerthal vs Aschaffenburg?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ammerthal vs Aschaffenburg?
Expected goals are 0.71 for Ammerthal and 1.53 for Aschaffenburg — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ammerthal vs Aschaffenburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (16%). Double chance for Ammerthal or draw is 43%.