Ammerthal vs Fortuna Regensburg Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Ammerthal vs Fortuna Regensburg
Model pick: Fortuna Regensburg (68%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.31 – 1.74
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ammerthal | Fortuna Regensburg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.75 / 2.75 | 0.33 / 1.33 |
*Ammerthal shown at home, Fortuna Regensburg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ammerthal — last 5
LWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Fortuna Regensburg — last 5
LLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ammerthal (home) | Fortuna Regensburg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 50% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.05
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.31 vs 1.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (22%) |
| Double chance — Ammerthal or draw (1X) | 27% |
| Double chance — Fortuna Regensburg or draw (X2) | 94% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Ammerthal clean sheet | 18% |
| Fortuna Regensburg clean sheet | 73% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fortuna Regensburg is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Despite playing away, Fortuna Regensburg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ammerthal vs Fortuna Regensburg — FAQ
Who will win Ammerthal vs Fortuna Regensburg?
Our statistical model makes Fortuna Regensburg the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Ammerthal 8%, draw 24%, Fortuna Regensburg 68%.
Will both teams score in Ammerthal vs Fortuna Regensburg?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ammerthal vs Fortuna Regensburg?
Expected goals are 0.31 for Ammerthal and 1.74 for Fortuna Regensburg — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ammerthal vs Fortuna Regensburg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (22%). Double chance for Ammerthal or draw is 27%.