Amstetten vs Hertha Wels Prediction & Preview
1-Liga (Austria) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-LIGA (AUSTRIA)
Amstetten vs Hertha Wels
Model pick: Amstetten (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.63 – 1.29
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Amstetten | Hertha Wels |
|---|
| League position | #7 (5 pts) | #12 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.0 | 3.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Amstetten shown at home, Hertha Wels shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Amstetten — last 5
WDDWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Hertha Wels — last 5
LWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 5% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Amstetten (home) | Hertha Wels (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 5% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 65% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 65% |
1-Liga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.98
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 56%
Use these 1-Liga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.63 vs 1.29):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Amstetten or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Hertha Wels or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Amstetten clean sheet | 28% |
| Hertha Wels clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Amstetten is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Amstetten are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Amstetten vs Hertha Wels — FAQ
Who will win Amstetten vs Hertha Wels?
Our statistical model makes Amstetten the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Amstetten 50%, draw 25%, Hertha Wels 25%.
Will both teams score in Amstetten vs Hertha Wels?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Amstetten vs Hertha Wels?
Expected goals are 1.63 for Amstetten and 1.29 for Hertha Wels — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Amstetten vs Hertha Wels?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Amstetten or draw is 70%.