Amurrio vs Aurrera de Vitoria Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Amurrio vs Aurrera de Vitoria
Model pick: Amurrio (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 0.99
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Amurrio | Aurrera de Vitoria |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.2 | 1.4 / 0.8 |
*Amurrio shown at home, Aurrera de Vitoria shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Amurrio — last 5
WLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 45% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Aurrera de Vitoria — last 5
DLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 41% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Amurrio (home) | Aurrera de Vitoria (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 45% | 41% |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 47% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Amurrio or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Aurrera de Vitoria or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Amurrio clean sheet | 37% |
| Aurrera de Vitoria clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Amurrio is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Amurrio are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Amurrio vs Aurrera de Vitoria — FAQ
Who will win Amurrio vs Aurrera de Vitoria?
Our statistical model makes Amurrio the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Amurrio 44%, draw 28%, Aurrera de Vitoria 28%.
Will both teams score in Amurrio vs Aurrera de Vitoria?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Amurrio vs Aurrera de Vitoria?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Amurrio and 0.99 for Aurrera de Vitoria — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Amurrio vs Aurrera de Vitoria?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Amurrio or draw is 73%.