Andijan vs Pakhtakor Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Andijan vs Pakhtakor
Model pick: Pakhtakor (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.09 – 1.98
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Andijan | Pakhtakor |
|---|
| League position | #9 (17 pts) | #2 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 1.0 | 1.8 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 80% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
*Andijan shown at home, Pakhtakor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Andijan — last 5
WWDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Pakhtakor — last 5
WDDWW
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Andijan (home) | Pakhtakor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-3 in 6 (1.7 / 1.0 goals per game) | 4-1-0 in 5 (1.8 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 45% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.46
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.09 vs 1.98):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Andijan or draw (1X) | 42% |
| Double chance — Pakhtakor or draw (X2) | 80% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 37% / 63% |
| Andijan clean sheet | 14% |
| Pakhtakor clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pakhtakor is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Despite playing away, Pakhtakor edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Andijan vs Pakhtakor — FAQ
Who will win Andijan vs Pakhtakor?
Our statistical model makes Pakhtakor the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Andijan 22%, draw 23%, Pakhtakor 54%.
Will both teams score in Andijan vs Pakhtakor?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Andijan vs Pakhtakor?
Expected goals are 1.09 for Andijan and 1.98 for Pakhtakor — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Andijan vs Pakhtakor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Andijan or draw is 42%.