Andijan vs Xorazm Urganch Prediction & Preview
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) · Aug 25, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OLIY LIGA (UZBEKISTAN)
Andijan vs Xorazm Urganch
Model pick: Andijan (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.2
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Andijan | Xorazm Urganch |
|---|
| League position | #9 (24 pts) | #11 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 44% | 11% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Andijan shown at home, Xorazm Urganch shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Andijan — last 5
WDLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 47% of home games go over 2.5.
Xorazm Urganch — last 5
LWLWD
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 57% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Andijan (home) | Xorazm Urganch (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-1-4 in 9 (1.3 / 1.0 goals per game) | 1-4-4 in 9 (0.8 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 57% |
Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Oliy Liga (Uzbekistan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.52 vs 1.2):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Andijan or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Xorazm Urganch or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Andijan clean sheet | 30% |
| Xorazm Urganch clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Andijan is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Andijan are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Andijan vs Xorazm Urganch — FAQ
Who will win Andijan vs Xorazm Urganch?
Our statistical model makes Andijan the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Andijan 43%, draw 26%, Xorazm Urganch 31%.
Will both teams score in Andijan vs Xorazm Urganch?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Andijan vs Xorazm Urganch?
Expected goals are 1.52 for Andijan and 1.2 for Xorazm Urganch — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Andijan vs Xorazm Urganch?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Andijan or draw is 70%.