Angust Nazran vs FC Sevastopol Prediction & Preview
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FNL 2 DIVISION B (RUSSIA)
Angust Nazran vs FC Sevastopol
Model pick: FC Sevastopol (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.67 – 1.01
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 35%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Angust Nazran | FC Sevastopol |
|---|
| League position | #13 (16 pts) | #1 (41 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 0.9 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 70% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 0.8 | 2.6 / 2.0 |
*Angust Nazran shown at home, FC Sevastopol shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Angust Nazran — last 5
DLDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
FC Sevastopol — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Angust Nazran (home) | FC Sevastopol (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-4 in 8 (0.5 / 0.9 goals per game) | 7-1-2 in 10 (2.0 / 0.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 100% |
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 62%
Use these FNL 2 Division B (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.67 vs 1.01):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (19%) |
| Double chance — Angust Nazran or draw (1X) | 57% |
| Double chance — FC Sevastopol or draw (X2) | 76% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 66% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| Angust Nazran clean sheet | 36% |
| FC Sevastopol clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FC Sevastopol is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Despite playing away, FC Sevastopol edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (65% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Angust Nazran vs FC Sevastopol — FAQ
Who will win Angust Nazran vs FC Sevastopol?
Our statistical model makes FC Sevastopol the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Angust Nazran 25%, draw 34%, FC Sevastopol 41%.
Will both teams score in Angust Nazran vs FC Sevastopol?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Angust Nazran vs FC Sevastopol?
Expected goals are 0.67 for Angust Nazran and 1.01 for FC Sevastopol — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Angust Nazran vs FC Sevastopol?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (19%). Double chance for Angust Nazran or draw is 57%.