Antalyaspor vs Sariyer Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Antalyaspor vs Sariyer
Model pick: Antalyaspor (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.42 – 2.44
Total goals: 5.9
Over 2.5: 82%
Both teams score: 74%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Antalyaspor | Sariyer |
|---|
| League position | #16 (32 pts) | #7 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.9 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 29% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 0.8 |
*Antalyaspor shown at home, Sariyer shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Antalyaspor — last 5
LWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Sariyer — last 5
LWWWD
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Antalyaspor (home) | Sariyer (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-4-8 in 17 (1.3 / 1.9 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 35% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% |
| Top scorer | – | Marcos Silva (3) |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.42 vs 2.44):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-2 (6%) |
| Double chance — Antalyaspor or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Sariyer or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 84% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 98% / 2% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Antalyaspor clean sheet | 9% |
| Sariyer clean sheet | 3% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Antalyaspor is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Antalyaspor are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.9, this shapes as an open game (82% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Antalyaspor vs Sariyer — FAQ
Who will win Antalyaspor vs Sariyer?
Our statistical model makes Antalyaspor the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Antalyaspor 54%, draw 18%, Sariyer 28%.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Sariyer?
The model gives a 74% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Antalyaspor vs Sariyer?
Expected goals are 3.42 for Antalyaspor and 2.44 for Sariyer — about 5.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Antalyaspor vs Sariyer?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-2 (6%). Double chance for Antalyaspor or draw is 73%.