Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic
Model pick: Dunfermline Athletic (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.09 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Arbroath | Dunfermline Athletic |
|---|
| League position | #4 (7 pts) | #7 (5 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.5 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1.0 |
*Arbroath shown at home, Dunfermline Athletic shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Arbroath — last 5
WLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Dunfermline Athletic — last 5
DDLLW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 40% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Arbroath (home) | Dunfermline Athletic (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (0.5 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 40% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.59
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.09 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Arbroath or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Dunfermline Athletic or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 66% / 34% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Arbroath clean sheet | 32% |
| Dunfermline Athletic clean sheet | 34% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Dunfermline Athletic is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Dunfermline Athletic edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic — FAQ
Who will win Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic?
Our statistical model makes Dunfermline Athletic the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Arbroath 34%, draw 30%, Dunfermline Athletic 36%.
Will both teams score in Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic?
Expected goals are 1.09 for Arbroath and 1.15 for Dunfermline Athletic — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Arbroath vs Dunfermline Athletic?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Arbroath or draw is 63%.