Arbroath vs Livingston Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Arbroath vs Livingston
Model pick: Livingston (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.7 – 1.43
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Arbroath | Livingston |
|---|
| League position | #6 (4 pts) | #4 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.0 | 0.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.0 | 2.6 / 0.8 |
*Arbroath shown at home, Livingston shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Arbroath — last 5
LWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Livingston — last 5
LWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Arbroath (home) | Livingston (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Scott Pittman (5) |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.7 vs 1.43):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (17%) |
| Double chance — Arbroath or draw (1X) | 45% |
| Double chance — Livingston or draw (X2) | 82% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Arbroath clean sheet | 24% |
| Livingston clean sheet | 50% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Livingston is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Livingston edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Arbroath vs Livingston — FAQ
Who will win Arbroath vs Livingston?
Our statistical model makes Livingston the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Arbroath 26%, draw 29%, Livingston 46%.
Will both teams score in Arbroath vs Livingston?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Arbroath vs Livingston?
Expected goals are 0.7 for Arbroath and 1.43 for Livingston — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Arbroath vs Livingston?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (17%). Double chance for Arbroath or draw is 45%.