Arda vs Botev Plovdiv Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Arda vs Botev Plovdiv
Model pick: Arda (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.48 – 0.99
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Arda | Botev Plovdiv |
|---|
| League position | #5 (13 pts) | #8 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Arda shown at home, Botev Plovdiv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Arda — last 5
WLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Botev Plovdiv — last 5
LWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Arda (home) | Botev Plovdiv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-0-3 in 3 (0.7 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Birsent Karagaren (7) | Mascote (7) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.48 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Arda or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Botev Plovdiv or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Arda clean sheet | 37% |
| Botev Plovdiv clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Arda is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Arda are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Arda vs Botev Plovdiv — FAQ
Who will win Arda vs Botev Plovdiv?
Our statistical model makes Arda the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Arda 46%, draw 28%, Botev Plovdiv 26%.
Will both teams score in Arda vs Botev Plovdiv?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Arda vs Botev Plovdiv?
Expected goals are 1.48 for Arda and 0.99 for Botev Plovdiv — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Arda vs Botev Plovdiv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Arda or draw is 75%.