Arda vs Botev Vratsa Prediction & Preview
A PFG (Bulgaria) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
A PFG (BULGARIA)
Arda vs Botev Vratsa
Model pick: Arda (58%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.72 – 0.69
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Arda | Botev Vratsa |
|---|
| League position | #5 (10 pts) | #14 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 2.6 |
*Arda shown at home, Botev Vratsa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Arda — last 5
DWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Botev Vratsa — last 5
DLLLL
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Arda (home) | Botev Vratsa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (2.0 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-0-3 in 3 (0.7 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 54% |
| Top scorer | Birsent Karagaren (7) | Martin Petkov (4) |
A PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.44
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 43%
Use these A PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.72 vs 0.69):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Arda or draw (1X) | 85% |
| Double chance — Botev Vratsa or draw (X2) | 38% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Arda clean sheet | 50% |
| Botev Vratsa clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Arda is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Arda are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Arda vs Botev Vratsa — FAQ
Who will win Arda vs Botev Vratsa?
Our statistical model makes Arda the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Arda 58%, draw 25%, Botev Vratsa 17%.
Will both teams score in Arda vs Botev Vratsa?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Arda vs Botev Vratsa?
Expected goals are 1.72 for Arda and 0.69 for Botev Vratsa — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Arda vs Botev Vratsa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Arda or draw is 85%.