Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano Prediction & Preview
Prim B Metro (Argentina) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIM B METRO (ARGENTINA)
Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano
Model pick: Argentino Quilmes (34%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.96 – 0.94
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Argentino Quilmes | Sportivo Italiano |
|---|
| League position | #15 (37 pts) | #6 (52 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 0.4 | 1.8 / 0.4 |
*Argentino Quilmes shown at home, Sportivo Italiano shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Argentino Quilmes — last 5
DDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
Sportivo Italiano — last 5
DDWWL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Argentino Quilmes (home) | Sportivo Italiano (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-7-5 in 16 (0.8 / 0.9 goals per game) | 8-4-4 in 16 (1.2 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 35% |
Prim B Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.06
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 35%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Prim B Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.96 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Argentino Quilmes or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Sportivo Italiano or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Argentino Quilmes clean sheet | 39% |
| Sportivo Italiano clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Argentino Quilmes is the model's most likely outcome at
34%. Argentino Quilmes are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano — FAQ
Who will win Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?
Our statistical model makes Argentino Quilmes the most likely result at 34%. Full probabilities: Argentino Quilmes 34%, draw 32%, Sportivo Italiano 34%.
Will both teams score in Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?
Expected goals are 0.96 for Argentino Quilmes and 0.94 for Sportivo Italiano — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Argentino Quilmes vs Sportivo Italiano?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (15%). Double chance for Argentino Quilmes or draw is 66%.