Argentino Quilmes vs Villa Dálmine Prediction & Preview
Prim B Metro (Argentina) · Jul 25, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIM B METRO (ARGENTINA)
Argentino Quilmes vs Villa Dálmine
Model pick: Argentino Quilmes (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.17 – 0.73
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 39%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Argentino Quilmes | Villa Dálmine |
|---|
| League position | #15 (31 pts) | #4 (48 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 31% | 62% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 0.6 |
*Argentino Quilmes shown at home, Villa Dálmine shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Argentino Quilmes — last 5
WLLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Villa Dálmine — last 5
WWWDD
On the road: clean sheet 34% of the time; 24% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Argentino Quilmes (home) | Villa Dálmine (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-5-4 in 13 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 8-3-2 in 13 (1.4 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 34% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 32% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 24% |
Prim B Metro (Argentina) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.07
Home wins: 39%
Draws: 33%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 35%
BTTS: 43%
Use these Prim B Metro (Argentina) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.17 vs 0.73):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Argentino Quilmes or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Villa Dálmine or draw (X2) | 54% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 57% / 43% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Argentino Quilmes clean sheet | 48% |
| Villa Dálmine clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Argentino Quilmes is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Argentino Quilmes are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (61% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Argentino Quilmes vs Villa Dálmine — FAQ
Who will win Argentino Quilmes vs Villa Dálmine?
Our statistical model makes Argentino Quilmes the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Argentino Quilmes 44%, draw 31%, Villa Dálmine 24%.
Will both teams score in Argentino Quilmes vs Villa Dálmine?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Argentino Quilmes vs Villa Dálmine?
Expected goals are 1.17 for Argentino Quilmes and 0.73 for Villa Dálmine — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Argentino Quilmes vs Villa Dálmine?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for Argentino Quilmes or draw is 77%.