Arlanda vs Umeå FC Prediction & Preview
Division 1 (Sweden) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION 1 (SWEDEN)
Arlanda vs Umeå FC
Model pick: Arlanda (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.75 – 1.27
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Arlanda | Umeå FC |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.8 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*Arlanda shown at home, Umeå FC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Arlanda — last 5
DLLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of home games go over 2.5.
Umeå FC — last 5
LLLDW
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Arlanda (home) | Umeå FC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 47% |
Division 1 (Sweden) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.11
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Division 1 (Sweden) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.75 vs 1.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Arlanda or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Umeå FC or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Arlanda clean sheet | 28% |
| Umeå FC clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Arlanda is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Arlanda are backed at home, where they average 3.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Arlanda vs Umeå FC — FAQ
Who will win Arlanda vs Umeå FC?
Our statistical model makes Arlanda the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Arlanda 46%, draw 25%, Umeå FC 29%.
Will both teams score in Arlanda vs Umeå FC?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Arlanda vs Umeå FC?
Expected goals are 1.75 for Arlanda and 1.27 for Umeå FC — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Arlanda vs Umeå FC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Arlanda or draw is 72%.