Arsenal Tula 2 vs FK Shumbrat Saransk Prediction & Preview
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FNL 2 DIVISION B (RUSSIA)
Arsenal Tula 2 vs FK Shumbrat Saransk
Model pick: FK Shumbrat Saransk (76%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.71 – 2.83
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Arsenal Tula 2 | FK Shumbrat Saransk |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.4 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
*Arsenal Tula 2 shown at home, FK Shumbrat Saransk shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Arsenal Tula 2 — last 5
LLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
FK Shumbrat Saransk — last 5
LLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Arsenal Tula 2 (home) | FK Shumbrat Saransk (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 67% |
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.1
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 62%
Use these FNL 2 Division B (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.71 vs 2.83):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (12%) |
| Double chance — Arsenal Tula 2 or draw (1X) | 19% |
| Double chance — FK Shumbrat Saransk or draw (X2) | 93% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Arsenal Tula 2 clean sheet | 6% |
| FK Shumbrat Saransk clean sheet | 49% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FK Shumbrat Saransk is the model's most likely outcome at
76%. Despite playing away, FK Shumbrat Saransk edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Arsenal Tula 2 vs FK Shumbrat Saransk — FAQ
Who will win Arsenal Tula 2 vs FK Shumbrat Saransk?
Our statistical model makes FK Shumbrat Saransk the most likely result at 76%. Full probabilities: Arsenal Tula 2 9%, draw 15%, FK Shumbrat Saransk 76%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal Tula 2 vs FK Shumbrat Saransk?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Arsenal Tula 2 vs FK Shumbrat Saransk?
Expected goals are 0.71 for Arsenal Tula 2 and 2.83 for FK Shumbrat Saransk — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal Tula 2 vs FK Shumbrat Saransk?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (12%). Double chance for Arsenal Tula 2 or draw is 19%.