Arsenal Tula vs Ural Prediction & Preview
1-division (Russia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
1-DIVISION (RUSSIA)
Arsenal Tula vs Ural
Model pick: Ural (64%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.32 – 1.56
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 38%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Arsenal Tula | Ural |
|---|
| League position | #9 (11 pts) | #3 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 75% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 0.2 |
*Arsenal Tula shown at home, Ural shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Arsenal Tula — last 5
LWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Ural — last 5
DWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Arsenal Tula (home) | Ural (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-0-1 in 4 (1.2 / 0.8 goals per game) | 1-2-0 in 3 (1.3 / 0.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 43% |
1-division (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.71
Home wins: 48%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 52%
Use these 1-division (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.32 vs 1.56):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (24%) |
| Double chance — Arsenal Tula or draw (1X) | 31% |
| Double chance — Ural or draw (X2) | 93% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 56% / 44% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Arsenal Tula clean sheet | 21% |
| Ural clean sheet | 73% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ural is the model's most likely outcome at
64%. Despite playing away, Ural edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Arsenal Tula vs Ural — FAQ
Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Ural?
Our statistical model makes Ural the most likely result at 64%. Full probabilities: Arsenal Tula 10%, draw 26%, Ural 64%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal Tula vs Ural?
The model gives a 38% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Arsenal Tula vs Ural?
Expected goals are 0.32 for Arsenal Tula and 1.56 for Ural — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal Tula vs Ural?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (24%). Double chance for Arsenal Tula or draw is 31%.