Arsenal vs Slavia Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Belarus) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (BELARUS)
Arsenal vs Slavia
Model pick: Slavia (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.88 – 1.27
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Arsenal | Slavia |
|---|
| League position | #9 (21 pts) | #11 (18 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.5 | 0.9 / 1.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 25% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 2.2 | 2.6 / 1.8 |
*Arsenal shown at home, Slavia shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Arsenal — last 5
LDLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
Slavia — last 5
LLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Arsenal (home) | Slavia (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-4 in 8 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) | 2-3-2 in 7 (0.9 / 1.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 49% |
Premier League (Belarus) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.53
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 44%
Use these Premier League (Belarus) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.88 vs 1.27):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (15%) |
| Double chance — Arsenal or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Slavia or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 28% |
| Slavia clean sheet | 41% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Slavia is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Slavia edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Arsenal vs Slavia — FAQ
Who will win Arsenal vs Slavia?
Our statistical model makes Slavia the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Arsenal 27%, draw 30%, Slavia 44%.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Slavia?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Arsenal vs Slavia?
Expected goals are 0.88 for Arsenal and 1.27 for Slavia — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal vs Slavia?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (15%). Double chance for Arsenal or draw is 55%.