ASC 09 Dortmund vs Vreden Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
ASC 09 Dortmund vs Vreden
Model pick: Vreden (80%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.23 – 2.31
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 35%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| ASC 09 Dortmund | Vreden |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 3.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
*ASC 09 Dortmund shown at home, Vreden shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
ASC 09 Dortmund — last 5
L
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of home games go over 2.5.
Vreden — last 5
W
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | ASC 09 Dortmund (home) | Vreden (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 0% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.43
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.23 vs 2.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (21%) |
| Double chance — ASC 09 Dortmund or draw (1X) | 15% |
| Double chance — Vreden or draw (X2) | 97% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| ASC 09 Dortmund clean sheet | 10% |
| Vreden clean sheet | 79% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Vreden is the model's most likely outcome at
80%. Despite playing away, Vreden edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ ASC 09 Dortmund vs Vreden — FAQ
Who will win ASC 09 Dortmund vs Vreden?
Our statistical model makes Vreden the most likely result at 80%. Full probabilities: ASC 09 Dortmund 4%, draw 16%, Vreden 80%.
Will both teams score in ASC 09 Dortmund vs Vreden?
The model gives a 35% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in ASC 09 Dortmund vs Vreden?
Expected goals are 0.23 for ASC 09 Dortmund and 2.31 for Vreden — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in ASC 09 Dortmund vs Vreden?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (21%). Double chance for ASC 09 Dortmund or draw is 15%.