Ascoli vs Benevento Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Italy) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (ITALY)
Ascoli vs Benevento
Model pick: Ascoli (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.07
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ascoli | Benevento |
|---|
| League position | #5 (4 pts) | #15 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.8 | 2.0 / 2.4 |
*Ascoli shown at home, Benevento shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ascoli — last 5
LWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 42% of home games go over 2.5.
Benevento — last 5
DWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 30% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ascoli (home) | Benevento (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 41% |
Serie B (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.45
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Serie B (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.13 vs 1.07):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Ascoli or draw (1X) | 66% |
| Double chance — Benevento or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Ascoli clean sheet | 34% |
| Benevento clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ascoli is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Ascoli are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ascoli vs Benevento — FAQ
Who will win Ascoli vs Benevento?
Our statistical model makes Ascoli the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Ascoli 36%, draw 30%, Benevento 34%.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Benevento?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ascoli vs Benevento?
Expected goals are 1.13 for Ascoli and 1.07 for Benevento — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ascoli vs Benevento?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Ascoli or draw is 66%.