Ashton United vs Ilkeston Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 25, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Ashton United vs Ilkeston
Model pick: Ashton United (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.37 – 0.42
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 37%
Both teams score: 40%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ashton United | Ilkeston |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Ashton United shown at home, Ilkeston shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ashton United — last 5
LWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 26% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Ilkeston — last 5
WWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ashton United (home) | Ilkeston (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 26% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 67% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.74
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 21%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.37 vs 0.42):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (23%) |
| Double chance — Ashton United or draw (1X) | 89% |
| Double chance — Ilkeston or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 11% / 89% |
| Ashton United clean sheet | 66% |
| Ilkeston clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ashton United is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Ashton United are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (63% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ashton United vs Ilkeston — FAQ
Who will win Ashton United vs Ilkeston?
Our statistical model makes Ashton United the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Ashton United 57%, draw 29%, Ilkeston 14%.
Will both teams score in Ashton United vs Ilkeston?
The model gives a 40% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ashton United vs Ilkeston?
Expected goals are 1.37 for Ashton United and 0.42 for Ilkeston — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ashton United vs Ilkeston?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (23%). Double chance for Ashton United or draw is 89%.