Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 17, 2026 · kickoff 21:05 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto
Model pick: Atlético Bucaramanga (56%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.41 – 0.74
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Atlético Bucaramanga | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|
| League position | #13 (23 pts) | #7 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Atlético Bucaramanga shown at home, Deportivo Pasto shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Atlético Bucaramanga — last 5
DWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 40% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Pasto — last 5
LWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 37% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Atlético Bucaramanga (home) | Deportivo Pasto (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 37% |
| Top scorer | – | Andrey Estupinan Quinones (13) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.41 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Atlético Bucaramanga or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Pasto or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Atlético Bucaramanga clean sheet | 48% |
| Deportivo Pasto clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Atlético Bucaramanga is the model's most likely outcome at
56%. Atlético Bucaramanga are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto — FAQ
Who will win Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto?
Our statistical model makes Atlético Bucaramanga the most likely result at 56%. Full probabilities: Atlético Bucaramanga 56%, draw 27%, Deportivo Pasto 17%.
Will both teams score in Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto?
Expected goals are 1.41 for Atlético Bucaramanga and 0.74 for Deportivo Pasto — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Atlético Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Atlético Bucaramanga or draw is 80%.