Atlético Grau vs Sport Boys Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 20:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
Atlético Grau vs Sport Boys
Model pick: Atlético Grau (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.66 – 0.79
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Atlético Grau | Sport Boys |
|---|
| League position | #13 (19 pts) | #12 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.8 | 0.6 / 1.0 |
*Atlético Grau shown at home, Sport Boys shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Atlético Grau — last 5
LLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Sport Boys — last 5
LLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Atlético Grau (home) | Sport Boys (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% |
| Top scorer | – | Luciano Nequecaur (5) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.66 vs 0.79):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Atlético Grau or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Sport Boys or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Atlético Grau clean sheet | 45% |
| Sport Boys clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Atlético Grau is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Atlético Grau are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Atlético Grau vs Sport Boys — FAQ
Who will win Atlético Grau vs Sport Boys?
Our statistical model makes Atlético Grau the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Atlético Grau 48%, draw 28%, Sport Boys 23%.
Will both teams score in Atlético Grau vs Sport Boys?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Atlético Grau vs Sport Boys?
Expected goals are 1.66 for Atlético Grau and 0.79 for Sport Boys — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Atlético Grau vs Sport Boys?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Atlético Grau or draw is 82%.