Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Cali Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Colombia) · Aug 27, 2026 · kickoff 01:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (COLOMBIA)
Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Cali
Model pick: Atlético Nacional (58%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.98 – 0.76
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Atlético Nacional | Deportivo Cali |
|---|
| League position | #1 (55 pts) | #9 (27 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 0.6 | 1.4 / 0.4 |
*Atlético Nacional shown at home, Deportivo Cali shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Atlético Nacional — last 5
LWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Deportivo Cali — last 5
DWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Atlético Nacional (home) | Deportivo Cali (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 43% |
| Top scorer | – | Yeison Guzman (8) |
Primera Division (Colombia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.27
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Primera Division (Colombia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.98 vs 0.76):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Atlético Nacional or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Deportivo Cali or draw (X2) | 34% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Atlético Nacional clean sheet | 47% |
| Deportivo Cali clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Atlético Nacional is the model's most likely outcome at
58%. Atlético Nacional are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Cali — FAQ
Who will win Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Cali?
Our statistical model makes Atlético Nacional the most likely result at 58%. Full probabilities: Atlético Nacional 58%, draw 24%, Deportivo Cali 17%.
Will both teams score in Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Cali?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Cali?
Expected goals are 1.98 for Atlético Nacional and 0.76 for Deportivo Cali — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Atlético Nacional vs Deportivo Cali?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Atlético Nacional or draw is 87%.