Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec Prediction & Preview
Championship (Canada) · Aug 11, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHAMPIONSHIP (CANADA)
Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec
Model pick: Supra du Quebec (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.6 – 1.91
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Atlético Ottawa | Supra du Quebec |
|---|
| League position | #4 (21 pts) | #5 (17 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.6 | 1.9 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 57% | 43% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.4 | 2.0 / 2.2 |
*Atlético Ottawa shown at home, Supra du Quebec shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Atlético Ottawa — last 5
LLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Supra du Quebec — last 5
WLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Atlético Ottawa (home) | Supra du Quebec (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-2-1 in 7 (1.9 / 1.6 goals per game) | 3-1-3 in 7 (1.9 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 100% |
Championship (Canada) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.79
Home wins: 55%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 23%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Championship (Canada) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.6 vs 1.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Atlético Ottawa or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Supra du Quebec or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Atlético Ottawa clean sheet | 15% |
| Supra du Quebec clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Supra du Quebec is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Despite playing away, Supra du Quebec edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec — FAQ
Who will win Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
Our statistical model makes Supra du Quebec the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 33%, draw 24%, Supra du Quebec 44%.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
Expected goals are 1.6 for Atlético Ottawa and 1.91 for Supra du Quebec — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Atlético Ottawa vs Supra du Quebec?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Atlético Ottawa or draw is 55%.