Atlético San Luis vs Guadalajara Prediction & Preview
Liga MX (Mexico) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA MX (MEXICO)
Atlético San Luis vs Guadalajara
Model pick: Guadalajara (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.18 – 1.46
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Atlético San Luis | Guadalajara |
|---|
| League position | #16 (3 pts) | #4 (11 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.3 | 1.0 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 3.0 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Atlético San Luis shown at home, Guadalajara shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Atlético San Luis — last 5
LLLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
Guadalajara — last 5
WDWLD
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Atlético San Luis (home) | Guadalajara (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-2-1 in 3 (1.0 / 1.3 goals per game) | 1-2-0 in 3 (1.0 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 45% |
| Top scorer | Galvao Joao Pedro (26) | – |
Liga MX (Mexico) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.68
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Liga MX (Mexico) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.18 vs 1.46):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Atlético San Luis or draw (1X) | 56% |
| Double chance — Guadalajara or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 27% / 73% |
| Atlético San Luis clean sheet | 23% |
| Guadalajara clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Guadalajara is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Despite playing away, Guadalajara edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Atlético San Luis vs Guadalajara — FAQ
Who will win Atlético San Luis vs Guadalajara?
Our statistical model makes Guadalajara the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Atlético San Luis 26%, draw 26%, Guadalajara 48%.
Will both teams score in Atlético San Luis vs Guadalajara?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Atlético San Luis vs Guadalajara?
Expected goals are 1.18 for Atlético San Luis and 1.46 for Guadalajara — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Atlético San Luis vs Guadalajara?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Atlético San Luis or draw is 56%.