Atyrau vs Okzhetpes Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Kazakhstan) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (KAZAKHSTAN)
Atyrau vs Okzhetpes
Model pick: Atyrau (36%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.38 – 1.22
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Atyrau | Okzhetpes |
|---|
| League position | #12 (20 pts) | #4 (33 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.8 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 20% | 30% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 1.8 / 1.6 |
*Atyrau shown at home, Okzhetpes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Atyrau — last 5
LLLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Okzhetpes — last 5
LWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Atyrau (home) | Okzhetpes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-5-3 in 10 (0.8 / 0.9 goals per game) | 3-2-5 in 10 (1.2 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 58% |
Premier League (Kazakhstan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.53
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 49%
Use these Premier League (Kazakhstan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.38 vs 1.22):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Atyrau or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Okzhetpes or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Atyrau clean sheet | 30% |
| Okzhetpes clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Atyrau is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Atyrau are backed at home, where they average 1.1 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Atyrau vs Okzhetpes — FAQ
Who will win Atyrau vs Okzhetpes?
Our statistical model makes Atyrau the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Atyrau 36%, draw 30%, Okzhetpes 35%.
Will both teams score in Atyrau vs Okzhetpes?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Atyrau vs Okzhetpes?
Expected goals are 1.38 for Atyrau and 1.22 for Okzhetpes — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Atyrau vs Okzhetpes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Atyrau or draw is 67%.