Auda vs BFC Daugavpils Prediction & Preview
Virsliga (Latvia) · Jul 26, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VIRSLIGA (LATVIA)
Auda vs BFC Daugavpils
Model pick: Auda (51%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.62 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Auda | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|
| League position | #3 (40 pts) | #4 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 20% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.2 | 2.4 / 1.8 |
*Auda shown at home, BFC Daugavpils shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Auda — last 5
LDDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 44% of home games go over 2.5.
BFC Daugavpils — last 5
LLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Auda (home) | BFC Daugavpils (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-4 in 10 (2.0 / 1.4 goals per game) | 2-4-4 in 10 (1.6 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 52% |
Virsliga (Latvia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.86
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Virsliga (Latvia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.62 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Auda or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — BFC Daugavpils or draw (X2) | 46% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Auda clean sheet | 40% |
| BFC Daugavpils clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Auda is the model's most likely outcome at
51%. Auda are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Auda vs BFC Daugavpils — FAQ
Who will win Auda vs BFC Daugavpils?
Our statistical model makes Auda the most likely result at 51%. Full probabilities: Auda 51%, draw 26%, BFC Daugavpils 23%.
Will both teams score in Auda vs BFC Daugavpils?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Auda vs BFC Daugavpils?
Expected goals are 1.62 for Auda and 0.91 for BFC Daugavpils — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Auda vs BFC Daugavpils?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Auda or draw is 79%.