Auda vs Super Nova Prediction & Preview
Virsliga (Latvia) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VIRSLIGA (LATVIA)
Auda vs Super Nova
Model pick: Auda (61%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.86 – 0.69
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Auda | Super Nova |
|---|
| League position | #3 (49 pts) | #7 (28 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 58% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.0 / 0.8 |
*Auda shown at home, Super Nova shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Auda — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Super Nova — last 5
WWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 9% of the time; 48% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Auda (home) | Super Nova (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-1-4 in 12 (2.0 / 1.2 goals per game) | 6-1-5 in 12 (1.0 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 9% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 48% |
Virsliga (Latvia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.86
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Virsliga (Latvia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.86 vs 0.69):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Auda or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — Super Nova or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Auda clean sheet | 50% |
| Super Nova clean sheet | 16% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Auda is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Auda are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Auda vs Super Nova — FAQ
Who will win Auda vs Super Nova?
Our statistical model makes Auda the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Auda 61%, draw 24%, Super Nova 16%.
Will both teams score in Auda vs Super Nova?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Auda vs Super Nova?
Expected goals are 1.86 for Auda and 0.69 for Super Nova — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Auda vs Super Nova?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Auda or draw is 87%.