Auda vs Tukums Prediction & Preview
Virsliga (Latvia) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
VIRSLIGA (LATVIA)
Auda vs Tukums
Model pick: Auda (60%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.93 – 0.77
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Auda | Tukums |
|---|
| League position | #3 (46 pts) | #9 (20 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.9 / 1.3 | 1.2 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 55% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
*Auda shown at home, Tukums shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Auda — last 5
WWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 43% of home games go over 2.5.
Tukums — last 5
LLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 63% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Auda (home) | Tukums (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-4 in 11 (1.9 / 1.3 goals per game) | 0-4-9 in 13 (1.2 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 63% |
Virsliga (Latvia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.86
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 20%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 47%
Use these Virsliga (Latvia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.93 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Auda or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Tukums or draw (X2) | 35% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Auda clean sheet | 46% |
| Tukums clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Auda is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. Auda are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Auda vs Tukums — FAQ
Who will win Auda vs Tukums?
Our statistical model makes Auda the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: Auda 60%, draw 23%, Tukums 17%.
Will both teams score in Auda vs Tukums?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Auda vs Tukums?
Expected goals are 1.93 for Auda and 0.77 for Tukums — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Auda vs Tukums?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Auda or draw is 86%.