Audace Cerignola vs Cosenza Prediction & Preview
Serie C - Group A (Italy) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE C - GROUP A (ITALY)
Audace Cerignola vs Cosenza
Model pick: Audace Cerignola (36%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.4 – 1.33
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Audace Cerignola | Cosenza |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
*Audace Cerignola shown at home, Cosenza shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Audace Cerignola — last 5
LDDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 39% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Cosenza — last 5
LWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 19% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Audace Cerignola (home) | Cosenza (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 39% | 19% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 42% |
Serie C - Group A (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.33
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Serie C - Group A (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.4 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Audace Cerignola or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Cosenza or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Audace Cerignola clean sheet | 26% |
| Cosenza clean sheet | 25% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Audace Cerignola is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Audace Cerignola are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Audace Cerignola vs Cosenza — FAQ
Who will win Audace Cerignola vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model makes Audace Cerignola the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Audace Cerignola 36%, draw 29%, Cosenza 35%.
Will both teams score in Audace Cerignola vs Cosenza?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Audace Cerignola vs Cosenza?
Expected goals are 1.4 for Audace Cerignola and 1.33 for Cosenza — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Audace Cerignola vs Cosenza?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Audace Cerignola or draw is 64%.