Augsburg vs Schalke 04 Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Germany) · Aug 30, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (GERMANY)
Augsburg vs Schalke 04
Model pick: Augsburg (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.69 – 1.04
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 58%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Augsburg | Schalke 04 |
|---|
| League position | #14 (0 pts) | #1 (70 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 4.4 / 2.2 | 2.6 / 1.8 |
*Augsburg shown at home, Schalke 04 shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Augsburg — last 5
LWWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Schalke 04 — last 5
WWLLW
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Augsburg (home) | Schalke 04 (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 58% |
| Top scorer | – | Kenan Karaman (14) |
Bundesliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.12
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 59%
Use these Bundesliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.69 vs 1.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Augsburg or draw (1X) | 77% |
| Double chance — Schalke 04 or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Augsburg clean sheet | 35% |
| Schalke 04 clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Augsburg is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Augsburg are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Augsburg vs Schalke 04 — FAQ
Who will win Augsburg vs Schalke 04?
Our statistical model makes Augsburg the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Augsburg 46%, draw 25%, Schalke 04 29%.
Will both teams score in Augsburg vs Schalke 04?
The model gives a 58% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Augsburg vs Schalke 04?
Expected goals are 1.69 for Augsburg and 1.04 for Schalke 04 — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Augsburg vs Schalke 04?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Augsburg or draw is 77%.