Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Bolivia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 21:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (BOLIVIA)
Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Model pick: Aurora (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
29%
Gualberto Villarroel SJ
Expected goals: 1.74 – 1.25
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Aurora | Gualberto Villarroel SJ |
|---|
| League position | #8 (24 pts) | #15 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.0 / 1.6 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 2.0 |
*Aurora shown at home, Gualberto Villarroel SJ shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Aurora — last 5
LLWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Gualberto Villarroel SJ — last 5
LLDDW
On the road: clean sheet 15% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Aurora (home) | Gualberto Villarroel SJ (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-4-1 in 8 (2.0 / 1.6 goals per game) | 0-4-4 in 8 (0.8 / 1.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 15% |
| Both teams scored | 51% | 62% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Rodrigo Ramallo (5) | Alex Caceres (2) |
Primera Division (Bolivia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.06
Home wins: 55%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 23%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 56%
Use these Primera Division (Bolivia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.74 vs 1.25):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Aurora or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Gualberto Villarroel SJ or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 80% / 20% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Aurora clean sheet | 29% |
| Gualberto Villarroel SJ clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Aurora is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Aurora are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ — FAQ
Who will win Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
Our statistical model makes Aurora the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Aurora 46%, draw 25%, Gualberto Villarroel SJ 29%.
Will both teams score in Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
Expected goals are 1.74 for Aurora and 1.25 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Aurora or draw is 72%.