Austevoll vs Varegg Prediction & Preview
3 Divisjon (Norway) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
3 DIVISJON (NORWAY)
Austevoll vs Varegg
Model pick: Varegg (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.26 – 1.32
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Austevoll | Varegg |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 2.2 / 2.0 |
*Austevoll shown at home, Varegg shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Austevoll — last 5
DLWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Varegg — last 5
WWLLL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Austevoll (home) | Varegg (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
3 Divisjon (Norway) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 4.58
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 14%
Away wins: 37%
Over 2.5: 79%
BTTS: 69%
Use these 3 Divisjon (Norway) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.26 vs 1.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Austevoll or draw (1X) | 62% |
| Double chance — Varegg or draw (X2) | 65% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Austevoll clean sheet | 27% |
| Varegg clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Varegg is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Varegg edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Austevoll vs Varegg — FAQ
Who will win Austevoll vs Varegg?
Our statistical model makes Varegg the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Austevoll 35%, draw 28%, Varegg 38%.
Will both teams score in Austevoll vs Varegg?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Austevoll vs Varegg?
Expected goals are 1.26 for Austevoll and 1.32 for Varegg — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Austevoll vs Varegg?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Austevoll or draw is 62%.