Austin vs SJ Earthquakes Prediction & Preview
MLS (USA) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 00:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MLS (USA)
Austin vs SJ Earthquakes
Model pick: Austin (44%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.8 – 1.3
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Austin | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|
| League position | #14 (14 pts) | #2 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 0.9 | 2.2 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 43% | 75% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 2.6 |
*Austin shown at home, SJ Earthquakes shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Austin — last 5
LWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 61% of home games go over 2.5.
SJ Earthquakes — last 5
LLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 14% of the time; 65% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Austin (home) | SJ Earthquakes (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-2-2 in 7 (1.3 / 0.9 goals per game) | 6-1-1 in 8 (2.2 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 14% |
| Both teams scored | 61% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 65% |
| Top scorer | Petar Musa (16) | Preston Judd (11) |
MLS (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 59%
Use these MLS (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.8 vs 1.3):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Austin or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — SJ Earthquakes or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Austin clean sheet | 27% |
| SJ Earthquakes clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Austin is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Austin are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Austin vs SJ Earthquakes — FAQ
Who will win Austin vs SJ Earthquakes?
Our statistical model makes Austin the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Austin 44%, draw 25%, SJ Earthquakes 31%.
Will both teams score in Austin vs SJ Earthquakes?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Austin vs SJ Earthquakes?
Expected goals are 1.8 for Austin and 1.3 for SJ Earthquakes — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Austin vs SJ Earthquakes?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Austin or draw is 72%.