Austria Lustenau vs Ried Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Austria) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Austria Lustenau vs Ried
Model pick: Ried (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.16 – 1.31
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Austria Lustenau | Ried |
|---|
| League position | #12 (0 pts) | #9 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.6 | 2.4 / 2.0 |
*Austria Lustenau shown at home, Ried shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Austria Lustenau — last 5
LWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Ried — last 5
LWWLW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Austria Lustenau (home) | Ried (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 47% |
Bundesliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.88
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Bundesliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.16 vs 1.31):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Austria Lustenau or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Ried or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Austria Lustenau clean sheet | 27% |
| Ried clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ried is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Despite playing away, Ried edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Austria Lustenau vs Ried — FAQ
Who will win Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Our statistical model makes Ried the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Austria Lustenau 35%, draw 28%, Ried 37%.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
Expected goals are 1.16 for Austria Lustenau and 1.31 for Ried — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Austria Lustenau vs Ried?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Austria Lustenau or draw is 60%.