Austria Lustenau vs Swarovski Tirol Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Austria) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Austria Lustenau vs Swarovski Tirol
Model pick: Austria Lustenau (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.39
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Austria Lustenau | Swarovski Tirol |
|---|
| League position | #5 (5 pts) | #12 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.0 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
*Austria Lustenau shown at home, Swarovski Tirol shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Austria Lustenau — last 5
WDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Swarovski Tirol — last 5
LWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Austria Lustenau (home) | Swarovski Tirol (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% |
Bundesliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.87
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Bundesliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 1.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Austria Lustenau or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Swarovski Tirol or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Austria Lustenau clean sheet | 25% |
| Swarovski Tirol clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Austria Lustenau is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Austria Lustenau are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Austria Lustenau vs Swarovski Tirol — FAQ
Who will win Austria Lustenau vs Swarovski Tirol?
Our statistical model makes Austria Lustenau the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Austria Lustenau 38%, draw 26%, Swarovski Tirol 36%.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs Swarovski Tirol?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Austria Lustenau vs Swarovski Tirol?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Austria Lustenau and 1.39 for Swarovski Tirol — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Austria Lustenau vs Swarovski Tirol?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Austria Lustenau or draw is 63%.