Austria Wien vs Swarovski Tirol Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga (Austria) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA (AUSTRIA)
Austria Wien vs Swarovski Tirol
Model pick: Austria Wien (54%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.88 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Austria Wien | Swarovski Tirol |
|---|
| League position | #8 (3 pts) | #11 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 2.0 |
*Austria Wien shown at home, Swarovski Tirol shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Austria Wien — last 5
LWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
Swarovski Tirol — last 5
LWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Austria Wien (home) | Swarovski Tirol (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 58% |
Bundesliga (Austria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.88
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Bundesliga (Austria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.88 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (11%) |
| Double chance — Austria Wien or draw (1X) | 80% |
| Double chance — Swarovski Tirol or draw (X2) | 42% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 78% / 22% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Austria Wien clean sheet | 37% |
| Swarovski Tirol clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Austria Wien is the model's most likely outcome at
54%. Austria Wien are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Austria Wien vs Swarovski Tirol — FAQ
Who will win Austria Wien vs Swarovski Tirol?
Our statistical model makes Austria Wien the most likely result at 54%. Full probabilities: Austria Wien 54%, draw 24%, Swarovski Tirol 22%.
Will both teams score in Austria Wien vs Swarovski Tirol?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Austria Wien vs Swarovski Tirol?
Expected goals are 1.88 for Austria Wien and 1.0 for Swarovski Tirol — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Austria Wien vs Swarovski Tirol?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (11%). Double chance for Austria Wien or draw is 80%.