Auxerre vs Angers SCO Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (France) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (FRANCE)
Auxerre vs Angers SCO
Model pick: Auxerre (49%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.41 – 0.93
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Auxerre | Angers SCO |
|---|
| League position | #17 (0 pts) | #15 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
*Auxerre shown at home, Angers SCO shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Auxerre — last 5
LDDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Angers SCO — last 5
WLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Auxerre (home) | Angers SCO (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 47% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 44% |
Ligue 1 (France) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Ligue 1 (France) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.41 vs 0.93):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Auxerre or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Angers SCO or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Auxerre clean sheet | 39% |
| Angers SCO clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Auxerre is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Auxerre are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Auxerre vs Angers SCO — FAQ
Who will win Auxerre vs Angers SCO?
Our statistical model makes Auxerre the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Auxerre 49%, draw 27%, Angers SCO 23%.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Angers SCO?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Auxerre vs Angers SCO?
Expected goals are 1.41 for Auxerre and 0.93 for Angers SCO — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Auxerre vs Angers SCO?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Auxerre or draw is 75%.