AV Alta vs One Knoxville Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 02:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
AV Alta vs One Knoxville
Model pick: One Knoxville (40%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.13 – 1.35
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| AV Alta | One Knoxville |
|---|
| League position | #8 (32 pts) | #4 (39 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.6 / 0.9 | 1.8 / 1.1 |
| Win rate this season* | 38% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*AV Alta shown at home, One Knoxville shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
AV Alta — last 5
LWLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 60% of home games go over 2.5.
One Knoxville — last 5
LWDDD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | AV Alta (home) | One Knoxville (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-6-2 in 13 (1.6 / 0.9 goals per game) | 5-3-2 in 10 (1.8 / 1.1 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.03
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 62%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.13 vs 1.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — AV Alta or draw (1X) | 58% |
| Double chance — One Knoxville or draw (X2) | 69% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| AV Alta clean sheet | 26% |
| One Knoxville clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
One Knoxville is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, One Knoxville edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ AV Alta vs One Knoxville — FAQ
Who will win AV Alta vs One Knoxville?
Our statistical model makes One Knoxville the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: AV Alta 32%, draw 28%, One Knoxville 40%.
Will both teams score in AV Alta vs One Knoxville?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in AV Alta vs One Knoxville?
Expected goals are 1.13 for AV Alta and 1.35 for One Knoxville — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in AV Alta vs One Knoxville?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for AV Alta or draw is 58%.