Avaí vs CRB Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 11, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Avaí vs CRB
Model pick: Avaí (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.31 – 0.88
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 51%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Avaí | CRB |
|---|
| League position | #18 (20 pts) | #8 (29 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.2 / 1.0 | 1.3 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 40% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.2 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Avaí shown at home, CRB shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Avaí — last 5
LWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 36% of home games go over 2.5.
CRB — last 5
LDWWW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Avaí (home) | CRB (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.2 / 1.0 goals per game) | 4-3-3 in 10 (1.3 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 44% |
| Top scorer | Thayllon (3) | Mikael (10) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.31 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Avaí or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — CRB or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Avaí clean sheet | 41% |
| CRB clean sheet | 27% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Avaí is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Avaí are backed at home, where they average 1.2 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Avaí vs CRB — FAQ
Who will win Avaí vs CRB?
Our statistical model makes Avaí the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Avaí 38%, draw 29%, CRB 33%.
Will both teams score in Avaí vs CRB?
The model gives a 51% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Avaí vs CRB?
Expected goals are 1.31 for Avaí and 0.88 for CRB — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Avaí vs CRB?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Avaí or draw is 75%.