Avaí vs Sport Recife Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Brazil) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 22:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (BRAZIL)
Avaí vs Sport Recife
Model pick: Sport Recife (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.09
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Avaí | Sport Recife |
|---|
| League position | #18 (20 pts) | #10 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.0 | 0.9 / 0.6 |
| Win rate this season* | 36% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Avaí shown at home, Sport Recife shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Avaí — last 5
WDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 37% of the time; 35% of home games go over 2.5.
Sport Recife — last 5
DDDDW
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 43% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Avaí (home) | Sport Recife (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 4-3-4 in 11 (1.1 / 1.0 goals per game) | 4-4-2 in 10 (0.9 / 0.6 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 37% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 43% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 43% |
| Top scorer | Thayllon (3) | Barletta Chrystian (8) |
Serie B (Brazil) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.17
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Serie B (Brazil) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 1.09):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Avaí or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Sport Recife or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Avaí clean sheet | 34% |
| Sport Recife clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sport Recife is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Sport Recife edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Avaí vs Sport Recife — FAQ
Who will win Avaí vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model makes Sport Recife the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Avaí 34%, draw 29%, Sport Recife 38%.
Will both teams score in Avaí vs Sport Recife?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Avaí vs Sport Recife?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Avaí and 1.09 for Sport Recife — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Avaí vs Sport Recife?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Avaí or draw is 67%.