Avance Ezcabarte vs Txantrea Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Avance Ezcabarte vs Txantrea
Model pick: Avance Ezcabarte (49%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.97 – 1.37
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Avance Ezcabarte | Txantrea |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 2.8 | 1.8 / 1.8 |
*Avance Ezcabarte shown at home, Txantrea shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Avance Ezcabarte — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 59% of home games go over 2.5.
Txantrea — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 21% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Avance Ezcabarte (home) | Txantrea (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 21% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 53% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.97 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Avance Ezcabarte or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Txantrea or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 85% / 15% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 43% / 57% |
| Avance Ezcabarte clean sheet | 25% |
| Txantrea clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Avance Ezcabarte is the model's most likely outcome at
49%. Avance Ezcabarte are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Avance Ezcabarte vs Txantrea — FAQ
Who will win Avance Ezcabarte vs Txantrea?
Our statistical model makes Avance Ezcabarte the most likely result at 49%. Full probabilities: Avance Ezcabarte 49%, draw 24%, Txantrea 28%.
Will both teams score in Avance Ezcabarte vs Txantrea?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Avance Ezcabarte vs Txantrea?
Expected goals are 1.97 for Avance Ezcabarte and 1.37 for Txantrea — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Avance Ezcabarte vs Txantrea?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Avance Ezcabarte or draw is 73%.