Avia Swidnik vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Avia Swidnik vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz
Model pick: Avia Swidnik (78%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.58 – 0.45
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Avia Swidnik | Sandecja Nowy Sącz |
|---|
| League position | #1 (6 pts) | #5 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 4.0 / 1.0 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.6 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 2.2 |
*Avia Swidnik shown at home, Sandecja Nowy Sącz shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Avia Swidnik — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Sandecja Nowy Sącz — last 5
LWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Avia Swidnik (home) | Sandecja Nowy Sącz (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 55% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.58 vs 0.45):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Avia Swidnik or draw (1X) | 95% |
| Double chance — Sandecja Nowy Sącz or draw (X2) | 17% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 81% / 19% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 36% / 64% |
| Avia Swidnik clean sheet | 64% |
| Sandecja Nowy Sącz clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Avia Swidnik is the model's most likely outcome at
78%. Avia Swidnik are backed at home, where they average 3.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Avia Swidnik vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz — FAQ
Who will win Avia Swidnik vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz?
Our statistical model makes Avia Swidnik the most likely result at 78%. Full probabilities: Avia Swidnik 78%, draw 15%, Sandecja Nowy Sącz 6%.
Will both teams score in Avia Swidnik vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Avia Swidnik vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz?
Expected goals are 2.58 for Avia Swidnik and 0.45 for Sandecja Nowy Sącz — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Avia Swidnik vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (16%). Double chance for Avia Swidnik or draw is 95%.