Avia Swidnik vs Zawisza Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Avia Swidnik vs Zawisza
Model pick: Avia Swidnik (85%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.57 – 0.17
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 32%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Avia Swidnik | Zawisza |
|---|
| League position | #3 (9 pts) | #7 (7 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.5 / 0.5 | 0.0 / 3.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Avia Swidnik shown at home, Zawisza shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Avia Swidnik — last 5
DWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Zawisza — last 5
LDLWW
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Avia Swidnik (home) | Zawisza (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (3.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 3.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.57 vs 0.17):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (21%) |
| Double chance — Avia Swidnik or draw (1X) | 99% |
| Double chance — Zawisza or draw (X2) | 11% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 90% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Avia Swidnik clean sheet | 84% |
| Zawisza clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Avia Swidnik is the model's most likely outcome at
85%. Avia Swidnik are backed at home, where they average 3.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Avia Swidnik vs Zawisza — FAQ
Who will win Avia Swidnik vs Zawisza?
Our statistical model makes Avia Swidnik the most likely result at 85%. Full probabilities: Avia Swidnik 85%, draw 13%, Zawisza 3%.
Will both teams score in Avia Swidnik vs Zawisza?
The model gives a 32% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Avia Swidnik vs Zawisza?
Expected goals are 2.57 for Avia Swidnik and 0.17 for Zawisza — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Avia Swidnik vs Zawisza?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (21%). Double chance for Avia Swidnik or draw is 99%.