Avia Swidnik vs Zielona Gora Prediction & Preview
II Liga (Poland) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
II LIGA (POLAND)
Avia Swidnik vs Zielona Gora
Model pick: Zielona Gora (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.34 – 2.36
Total goals: 4.7
Over 2.5: 73%
Both teams score: 69%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Avia Swidnik | Zielona Gora |
|---|
| League position | #5 (9 pts) | #11 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.7 / 1.7 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 1.4 |
*Avia Swidnik shown at home, Zielona Gora shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Avia Swidnik — last 5
WWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Zielona Gora — last 5
DDWLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Avia Swidnik (home) | Zielona Gora (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-1 in 3 (2.7 / 1.7 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 75% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 100% |
II Liga (Poland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.75
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 54%
Use these II Liga (Poland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.34 vs 2.36):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-2 (7%) |
| Double chance — Avia Swidnik or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Zielona Gora or draw (X2) | 60% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 81% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 95% / 5% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Avia Swidnik clean sheet | 9% |
| Zielona Gora clean sheet | 10% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Zielona Gora is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Zielona Gora edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.7, this shapes as an open game (73% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Avia Swidnik vs Zielona Gora — FAQ
Who will win Avia Swidnik vs Zielona Gora?
Our statistical model makes Zielona Gora the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Avia Swidnik 39%, draw 21%, Zielona Gora 40%.
Will both teams score in Avia Swidnik vs Zielona Gora?
The model gives a 69% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Avia Swidnik vs Zielona Gora?
Expected goals are 2.34 for Avia Swidnik and 2.36 for Zielona Gora — about 4.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Avia Swidnik vs Zielona Gora?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-2 (7%). Double chance for Avia Swidnik or draw is 59%.