Ayr United vs Arbroath Prediction & Preview
Division1 (Scotland) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION1 (SCOTLAND)
Ayr United vs Arbroath
Model pick: Ayr United (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.62 – 1.04
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ayr United | Arbroath |
|---|
| League position | #5 (0 pts) | #8 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.4 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*Ayr United shown at home, Arbroath shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ayr United — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 27% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Arbroath — last 5
WLLLW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ayr United (home) | Arbroath (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 27% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% |
Division1 (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Division1 (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.62 vs 1.04):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Ayr United or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Arbroath or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 74% / 26% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Ayr United clean sheet | 35% |
| Arbroath clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ayr United is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Ayr United are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ayr United vs Arbroath — FAQ
Who will win Ayr United vs Arbroath?
Our statistical model makes Ayr United the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Ayr United 40%, draw 30%, Arbroath 30%.
Will both teams score in Ayr United vs Arbroath?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Ayr United vs Arbroath?
Expected goals are 1.62 for Ayr United and 1.04 for Arbroath — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ayr United vs Arbroath?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Ayr United or draw is 76%.