Ayutthaya Utd vs Ratchaburi Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Thailand) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (THAILAND)
Ayutthaya Utd vs Ratchaburi
Model pick: Ratchaburi (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.63
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Ayutthaya Utd | Ratchaburi |
|---|
| League position | #8 (0 pts) | #7 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 3.2 | 3.6 / 0.8 |
*Ayutthaya Utd shown at home, Ratchaburi shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Ayutthaya Utd — last 5
LLLLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 6% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Ratchaburi — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Ayutthaya Utd (home) | Ratchaburi (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 6% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 62% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Itsuki Enomoto (6) | Junior Deni (5) |
Premier League (Thailand) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.95
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 57%
Use these Premier League (Thailand) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.15 vs 1.63):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Ayutthaya Utd or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — Ratchaburi or draw (X2) | 73% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Ayutthaya Utd clean sheet | 20% |
| Ratchaburi clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Ratchaburi is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Ratchaburi edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Ayutthaya Utd vs Ratchaburi — FAQ
Who will win Ayutthaya Utd vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model makes Ratchaburi the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Ayutthaya Utd 28%, draw 26%, Ratchaburi 46%.
Will both teams score in Ayutthaya Utd vs Ratchaburi?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Ayutthaya Utd vs Ratchaburi?
Expected goals are 1.15 for Ayutthaya Utd and 1.63 for Ratchaburi — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Ayutthaya Utd vs Ratchaburi?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Ayutthaya Utd or draw is 51%.